Ah, baseball history. Arguing baseball is different from other sports. Nobody would say Bronco Nagurski was as good as LaDainian Tomlinson. Nobody would say Hank Luisetti could carry Kobe Bryant’s jock strap. But Walter Johnson? He holds up well, and is mentioned along with Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson.
Many still insist Babe Ruth to be baseball’s all-time greatest player. Until Shohei Ohtani came along, there really was nobody besides The Babe who had been baseball’s greatest hitter as well as pitcher. If Ohtani can hit 500 home runs, steal 300 bases, win 100 games on the mound, and at least one World Series, he may well be the Greatest Baseball Player of All Time.
Statistically - and baseball runs rings around other sports when it comes to fascinating stats - the old school pitchers were the very best. Nobody will ever again approach Johnson’s 417 career wins, which included 36 victories in 1913 and 110 lifetime shutouts.
In the 100th anniversary of baseball in 1969 Walter Johnson was selected bnaseball’s all-time greatest pitcher
Then there is Cy Young, winner of 511 games. Christy Mathewson four times won over 30 games. Grover Cleveland Alexander won 30 games for three straight years (1915-17) and tied Mathewson’s National League record of 373 victories (90 by shutout). In 1904 Jack Chesbro of the New York Highlanders won 41 games in a single year. Alexander also lost key time to service in World War I. All of these men are Hall of Famers.
This was done in the “dead ball era,” which ended in 1920 courtesy of Babe Ruth, whose home run excitement prompted the game to “liven” the ball with a bouncier cork center. Ruth immediately started hitting 50 home runs a year, with 60 in 1927. The entire Major Leagues batted over .300 in 1930.
Between 1920 and World War II, there was really only one pitcher whose entire career was within that time span and whose name is mentioned among the all-time greatest. Hall of Famer Lefty Grove was 31-4 in 1931 and won 300 in his lifetime.
But there has been a re-appraisal of the game in the last 30 years. It is generally assumed that the “modern” game started after the war. There are several factors favoring this argument. Most notably is the emergence of African-American and Latino players, beginning in 1947 and reaching its apex in the 1980s. In recent years there were fewer African-Americans, but more Latinos, most notably Dominicans. Better diet and training methods have seen Dominicans who were an archetype - think Luis Aparicio, small yet nimble shortstops - reaching to tall and muscular sluggers like Sammy Sosa. Obviously this brings to mind the existence of steroids, and how this was, at least at first, an advantage hitters had over pitchers.
Other factors include more night baseball; long coast-to-coast road trips thanks to jet travel; and the introduction of pitches such as the slider and the split-fingered fastball.
The period between the end of World War II and the early 1960s is seen as a golden age, featuring such stalwarts as Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, and Hank Aaron. Williams is still generally considered the greatest hitter ever. The fact that he played in an integrated era and faced more sliders helps favor him. But it was a hitter’s era. There were short porches at Fenway Park, Ebbets Field, the Polo Grounds, Crosley Field, County Stadium, and others.
The best pitcher in the National League in the 1950s was Warren Spahn, a 20-game winner six straight years between 1956 and 1961. He won 363 games in his career. While unquestionably one of baseball’s all-time greats, most people do not consider Spahn to be number one. When baseball released its All-Time All-Star Team to commemorate the 100th anniversary in 1969, Grove was elected over Spahn as the best left-handed pitcher (Walter Johnson was the best right-hander). Spahn played for Milwaukee Braves teams that supported him with tremendous offense in the form of Hank Aaron, Eddie Mathews and other sluggers. His lifetime earned run average of 3.09 is impressive but there are others with lower ones. Grove was also supported by a murderous offense in Philadelphia.
Bob Feller of Cleveland may have been baseball’s greatest pitcher had World War II not deprived him of the chance to win 300 games
The best American League hurler of this era was “Rapid Robert” Feller of the Cleveland Indians. A teenage prep phenom out of Iowa, Feller blazed his way into the Major Leagues in 1936 with a 98-mile per hour fastball and threw his first no-hitter in 1940, but after his third straight 20-win season in 1941 volunteered for the Navy and World War II, missing three straight and almost an entire fourth year. It is logical to believe he could have won a minimum of 80 games between 1942 and 1945, which would have given him some 350 lifetime victories instead of 266. In his first year back after the war Feller won 26 games with a 2.18 ERA and an all-time record 348 strikeouts. In 1948 he led the Indians to their last World Series win, and retired with 2,581 career strikeouts, 44 shutouts and a 3.25 ERA to go with a record three no-hit games. No less an expert than Ted Williams flatly declared him the toughest pitcher he ever faced. Considering that Feller like Williams played against integrated competition in the modern era, many felt upon his retirement that he was the greatest hurler who ever lived; certainly the best of the post-war era.
As great as Feller and Spahn were, they were overshadowed by Sandy Koufax, who was a contemporary but quite a bit younger. Koufax began to show promise in 1959 after struggling mightily for four years. He pitched well in helping the Los Angeles Dodgers win the World Series. He was baseball’s best pitcher from 1961-66, winning 18 games pitching with a short porch at the Los Angeles Coliseum in 1961, but found himself when the team moved to Dodger Stadium in 1962. Before a mid-season injury Koufax won 14 games and still finished with a 2.54 ERA along with 216 strikeouts in 184.1 innings pitched.
Between 1962 and 1966 Sandy Koufax of Los Angeles was baseball’s most dominant pitcher ever
Historians generally agree he was as good in 1963 as any pitcher in history. Yogi Berra of the Yankees said after losing to him twice in the World Series that he still could not understand how he managed to lose five game in the regular season. The great Mickey Mantle, a switch-hitter, said he felt completely overwhelmed against Koufax. Pete Rose plainly stated he was the toughest pitcher he ever batted against, and he faced them all. In leading Los Angeles to the World Championship “Dandy Sandy” was 25-5 with a 1.88 ERA, 11 shutouts and 306 strikeouts. He struck out an all-time record 15 batters in game one of the World Series vs. Whitey Ford at Yankee Stadium, then followed it up with a 2-1, complete game victory to give his team a four-game sweep of New York in Los Angeles. He was named winner of the Cy Young Award and the National League Most Valuable Player.
He pitched his second no-hitter in 1963 and his third in 1964 when he was forced to the sidelines with an injury after winning 19 games against five losses with a 1.74 earned run average, and 223 strikeouts in 154 innings. Had Koufax not been injured he likely would have won 25 or 26 games in 1964 with well over 300 strikeouts, and his team might have captured the National League pennant. Koufax would have won his second Cy Young award, and considering his 1962 injury, had he been healthy in both these years, his third straight. Leonard Koppett, the resident historian of the New York Times, wrote in 1964 that Koufax was a close second all-time to Walter Johnson, with a strong chance at surpassing him over the succeeding years.
In 1965, a healthy Koufax was 26-8 with another league-leading 2.04 ERA to go with the all-time single-season strikeout record of 382. He threw his fourth no-hitter in as many years, this time a perfect 1-0 win over Chicago, and won two games over Minnesota to lead Los Angeles to another World Series. He won his second Cy Young.
Was he even better in 1966? Perhaps. He was 27-9 with an incredible 1.73 ERA, 27 complete games and 317 strikeouts in leading his team to another pennant, but at the end of the season retired at age 30 because of the pain he suffered from arm injuries. Historians generally accept that Koufax between 1962 and 1966 was the most dominant hurler of all time. While he did not win as many games as Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson and Grover Alexander in their respective primes, it is taken into account that those men pitched in the “dead ball era.” Koufax’s career spanned a thoroughly modern period. His three Cy Youngs came during a time in which there was only one awarded in all of baseball, not one in each league. He likely may have finished with five but-for injuries in 1962 and 1964.
The 1960s are seen as a golden era for baseball and for pitching. Juan Marichal of the San Francisco Giants six times won over 20 games and finished with a 2.89 career ERA. Koufax’s L.A. pitching partner Don Drysdale won 25 games and the Cy Young Award in 1962, threw a Major League record 58 consecutive scoreless innings with eight shutouts in 1968, while finishing with a 2.95 career earned run average.
In 1968 Bob Gibson of St. Louis had the greatest season ever, but he pitched on a mound six inches higher than Tom Seaver in his prime
Cardinals stalwart Bob Gibson had 3,117 career strikeout to go with 56 shutouts and a 2.91 earned run average and two Cy Young Awards, His greatest season was 1968, when he was 22-9 with a 1.12 ERA and 13 shutouts. That is considered the modern record, never threatened since. He broke Koufax’s record with 17 strikeouts in the World Series opener. Like Koufax he played on a team that failed to support him offensively. He had 29 complete games and would have won 30 had St. Louis given him anything close to what the Giants did for Marichal or the Braves did for Spahn. Historians more often than not point to Gibson in 1968 as the most dominant single-season performance in baseball history.
As great as he was, he was matched in the American League that season by Detroit’s Cy Young winner Denny McLain, winner of 31 games on a team that did score runs for him. It was the “Year off the Pitcher,” an anomaly that featured besides Gibson and McLain a plethora of 20-game winners, numerous no-hitters, a perfect game by Oakland’s Catfish Hunter, a 1-0 All-Star Game, three World Series wins by the Tigers’ Mickey Lolich, and the winner of both league’s MVP was a pitcher (Gibson, McLain). The earned run average for all of baseball in 1968 was below 3.00. Only one American Leaguer (Carl Yastrzemski) batted over .300.
The late 1960s and early 1970s probably saw a confluence of all-time greats unmatched by any period in the game’s hallowed history. Great pitchers coming into their own included Hunter, Steve Carlton of the Cardinals, Nolan Ryan and Tom Seaver of the Mets, Don Sutton of the Dodgers and Jim Palmer of the Orioles.
Steve Carlton had the game’s best slider and likely was the top southpaw of all time
Carlton amassed 329 career wins and a 3.22 ERA to go with 4,136strikeouts and 55 shutouts. At one point in the early 1980s Carlton and Ryan dueled for the most career strikeouts after surpassing Walter Johnson’s record before Ryan ended up with 5,714. The Hall of Famer out of Miami was 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA and 310 strikeouts pitching for a last place Philadelphia Phillies team in 1972. That season he won the first of his four Cy Young Awards, and in 1980 led the Phils to a World Series win over Kansas City.
Upon his retirement in the late 1980s, Carlton was considered by some to be the greatest southpaw of all time, surpassing Lefty Grove and Warren Spahn. Many still insisted Koufax was greater, despite clearly lacking the all-time career statistics (165 victories) not only of Carlton but any of the aforementioned pitchers. The argument between Carlton and Koufax, as with several other contenders for Greatest Pitcher of All Timecomes down to short term dominance, as with Koufax (who threw close to 100 miles per hour) over six years or Gibson in 1968 alone.
Nolan Ryan threw the hardest and was the most dominant
Aside from his all-time career strikeout record of 5,714 Ryan - who threw well over 100 miles per hour in his prime - won 329 games with a 3.19 ERA, and 61 shutouts. In 1973 he broke Koufax’s strikeout record with 383. However his 2,795 walks are an all-time record, as he led the league in this category numerous times. He threw a remarkable seven no-hit games, but never won a Cy Young Award. His only World Championship came in 1969, when he was a strong contributor with the Mets but far from the ace. Like Koufax Ryan struggled with control for the better part of six years before finding himself with the California Angels. Many consider Ryan baseball’s most dominant pitcher, even more so than Koufax, but dominance is not exactly the same thing as being the best. He has his supporters, particularly fans of his heater and strikeouts, but as great as he was he was not the best pitcher of any of the eras he hurled in, which consist of the late 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, and several years in the 1990s. His longevity cannot be matched, but despite his unquestionable Cooperstown credentials Ryan was not the greatest of all time.
Jim Palmer was an eight-time 20-game winner
Jim Palmer was far smoother than Ryan, and while he did not strike out nearly as many hitters, toss as many no-hitters, or bring such heat, when it came to winning games, over his prime years between 1969 and 1978 he was equal to any pitcher in the game. He won 20 games eight times, finishing with 53 shutouts and a 2.85 ERA before election to the Hall of Fame. A high school phenom out of Arizona, as a rookie in 1966 Palmer tossed a shutout to beat Koufax in the World Series, and a no-hit game in 1969. He captured three Cy Young Awards (1973 over Ryan, 1975, 1977) and was a member of an equal number of Baltimore World Champions (1966, 1970, 1983). Injuries, however, prevented him from winning the magic number of 300 career games, as they prevented Marichal, Koufax and Drysdale from attaining that mark.
Gaylord Perry, considered to be in Juan Marichal’s shadow in San Francisco, surpassed many of his contemporaries with 314 career wins and two Cy Young Awards, but never played on a World Championship team. He was a surefire Hall of Famer but his name, despite amazing statistics and longevity, is not normally mentioned with some of the others herein discussed.
Hall of Famer Jim “Catfish” Hunter must rank alongside the likes of Christy Mathewson, Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, Jack Morris, Orel Hershiser, Curt Schilling and John Smoltz as all-time “money pitchers,” but injuries cut him down before he could approach 300 wins.
The 1970s and 1980s saw several pitchers achieve enormous success in individual seasons. These include Ron Guidry, a 25-game winner for the 1978 Yankees; Steve Stone, a Cy Young winner for the 1980 Orioles; and in 1988 Orel Hershiser, who broke Drysdale’s record with 59 straight shutout innings in pitching the Dodgers to the World Series title. None of these men sustained that kind of effectiveness over the rest of their careers, however, and while both Guidry and Hershiser’s names garner some support for Cooperstown, neither is in.
The 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and beyond ushered in a new era of great closing pitchers. These included Rollie Fingers, who helped Oakland capture three straight World Series from 1972-74; Goose Gossage, one of the great fast ball aces of all time with the Yankees; Lee Smith, who overcame early wildness to set records for saves; Bruce Sutter, who revolutionized use of the split-finger; Trevor Hoffman, a Hall of Famer with San Diego; Dennis Eckersley, a “lights out” closer who won the Cy Young and MVP awards with Oakland; plus Billy Wagner, Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel, who since 2000 have re-written the role of relief pitchers.
But the only reliever whose name might possibly and legitimately be mentioned as the Greatest Pitcher of All Time remains Mariano Rivera. Perhaps only Eckersley between 1988 and 1992 can match Rivera as a completely near-unhittable relief ace, but the Yankee star did it for a longer period of time.
The age of the 300-game winner was coming to an end as we approached the 21st Century. The last pitchers to achieve this mark, long considered like 500 home runs and 3,000 hits to be a lock on Cooperstown, had won the majority of their games in the last decade of the 20th Century. Three stand out.
On paper Roger Clemens was the greatest of all pitchers
The first is Roger “the Rocket” Clemens. Absent any other considerations, Clemens on paper is almost without doubt the greatest hurler who ever pitched. After an All-American career at the University of Texas, where he led the Longhorns to the 1983 College World Series championship, he was a first round pick of the Boston Red Sox. He came into his own at age 23 with one of the most spectacular seasons in baseball history in 1986. This included breaking the Major League record with 20 strikeouts in a nine-inning game vs. Seattle (previously held by Steve Carlton of the Cardinals in 1969, and Tom Seaver of the Mets in 1970). He was 14-0 by June, started and was named Most Valuable Player of the All-Star Game. After winning 24 games and pitching his team into the World Series, Clemens won his first Cy Young Award as well as the American League MVP trophy. He won 20 again in 1987, garnering another Cy Young, and finished with an insane seven Cy Young Awards including in 2001 when he was an unbelievable 20-3 with the Yankees. He six times won 20 or more games.
With Houston in 2004 he was 18-4, winning the last of his Cy Youngs. Clemens played on two World Championship teams with the Yankees (1999, 2000). He finished with a 354-184 record, perhaps his most remarkable statistic. Only he and contemporary Randy Johnson won 300 and lost less than 200. His 4,672 strikeouts places him third behind Ryan and Johnson. His 46 career shutouts came despite pitching in an era in which closers more often finished games.
Considering the entirety of Clemens’s career of personal and team accomplishments, ranging from a college national title to two World titles; seven Cy Youngs; a rare MVP for a pitcher; an All-Star Game MVP award; it is difficult to look at his body of work and not conclude he was the best who ever lived. He was probably on par with Ryan as baseball’s hardest throwing pitcher, at least until the arrival of Johnson in his prime. It is also worth noting that Clemens did what he did in the height of the “steroid era,” which at the time certainly seemed to favor him since the vast majority of players initially revealed to have benefited from “juice,” including Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Barry Bonds (all who competed extensively against him) were offensive players.
Randy Johnson was as great as any pitcher who ever lived
Johnson is close. A six-foot, 10 inch fastball ace, he must rate among the hardest-throwing pitchers ever, routinely reaching 100 miles per hour. Mainly due to his height, Johnson was a late bloomer; not a huge high school star who was given a scholarship to the baseball factory of college, the University of Southern California, where he enjoyed fleeting success but mostly struggled. A second round pick of the Montreal Expos, he like Koufax before him struggled for years to reach his potential. It got so bad Montreal gave up on him, but when he joined forces with Ken Griffey, Jr. in Seattle he improved until in 1993 “the Big Unit,” as he was known, was 19-8 with 308 strikeouts in 255.1 innings pitched. By 1995 he was considered the best pitcher in the game, compiling a gaudy 18-2 mark with 294 strikeouts and a 2.48 ERA in a season in which he lost at least two starts due to the 1994-95 player’s strike. He joined the 20-win club in 1997, and the next year struck out 329.
Johnson moved to the expansion Arizona Diamondbacks due to free agency, and was 21-6 with a 2.49 ERA in 2001. He captured an unreal three wins in their World Series victory over the New York Yankees (earning co-MVP honors with Curt Schilling), after which Johnson captured his fourth of five Cy Young awards. He struck out 300 or more four straight years (1999-2002), five times total, with a high of 372 in 2001, only 11 shy of Nolan Ryan’s all-time record. His 4,875 career strikeouts are second only to Ryan, and Johnson earned mythical status in 2004 when a bird somehow flew into one of his fast balls and was smashed. Like Clemens he won 303 and lost less than 200 (166, a .646 percentage), and pitched at the height of the “steroid era.” He was never caught up in that scandal, and as a general rule avoids the tarnish of accusation, although his incredible longevity and the strength he developed in his body did lead some to believe it possible. Unlike Clemens, never elected because his steroid accusations have merit, Johnson is a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Considering the belief Johnson did it naturally, competed against those who did not, combined with his numbers, both in individual seasons and over his career, along with his honors (in particular five Cy Young Awards), anybody who would call him the Greatest Pitcher of All Time would not garner a great deal of challenge. Perhaps the more legitimate argument is whether Johnson is baseball’s all-time greatest southpaw, an honor he would compete with vs. the likes of Lefty Grove, Carl Hubbell, Warren Spahn, Sandy Koufax, and Steve Carlton. Ultimately the “answer” to that question is subjective and based on individual opinion.
Then there is Greg Maddux. Coming out of Las Vegas in the second round, he was neither very tall nor very big. He did not throw particularly hard. In his first full year with the Cubs he was 6-14 in 1987. Even in 1988, when he won 18 in leading the Cubs to the play-offs, he is remembered for tipping his pitches to Will Clark, who teed off on him like a hobo on a ham sandwich. After winning 20 games and the 1992 Cy Young Award, Maddux signed as a free agent with Atlanta, giving the Braves one of the most formidable pitching staffs ever assembled (Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz). Maddux again won 20 and the Cy Young. In 1995 he helped lead his team to a World Series title, going 19-2 with a microscopic 1.63 earned run average. He was the National League Cy Young winner four straight years (1992-95). He missed out on 20 victories in 1995 for the same reason Randy Johnson did; the strike canceled 20 games, meaning several starts for Maddux. Maddux lead the league in ERA four times on his way to a 3.16 career mark, highlighted by a 1.56 earned run average in the strike-shortened 1994 campaign to go with his 1.63 ERA the following season.
Greg Maddux’s pitches defied gravity
After his last Cy Young season in 1995, Maddux embarked on another full decade of magnificence, ever-so-slightly below his period on the mountain top in the mid-1990s, but still consistent with three 19-win seasons and, in 1998, a league-leading 2.22 ERA. He finished 355-227 with 3,371 strikeouts and induction into the Hall of Fame. His career victory total actually beats Clemens by a game, and came within 18 of the National League record of 373 held by Christy Mathewson and Grove Cleveland Alexander. To those who had to tangle with Maddux, few will flatly state that Clemens or Johnson were better. Both challenged hitters with heat, but Maddux was, like Hershiser in 1988, almost something from a Disney movie about a mad scientist who creates a substance that make baseball’s that simply will not touch wood. In this regard he seemed to defy gravity, throwing balls that moved not just in but up into right-handed hitters, catching corners and garnering called strikes or pitiful swings. In this respect Maddux can be compared to Koufax; both made Major League hitters look helpless and weak, flailing away at pitches they had no chance to hit. Because he did not throw much harder than average, Maddux’s body remained strong, allowing him to achieve longevity with little in the way of injury.
Underrated in this pantheon is Pedro Martinez, but again, hitters who faced him in his prime are hard-pressed to say anybody was ever better. He won three Cy Young awards, 20 games twice, and fives times was ERA champion. He won 16 games to help Boston capture the improbable 2004 World Series. But Bill James and analytics people point out two seasons, 1999 (23-4, 2.07 ERA, 313 strikeouts in only 213.1 innings; 1999, 18-6, 1.74 ERA, 284 strikeouts in 217 innings). These two seasons probably are the height of the “steroid era.” Martinez, unquestionably not on the “juice,” but pitching against hitters who mostly were, put up dominant numbers that defy explanation. Perhaps only Babe Ruth in the 1920s, Barry Bonds in the 2000s, or to look at other sports, Wilt Chamberlain in the 1960s or Wayne Gretzky in the 1980s, have ever dominated a sport far above the level of their competition as did Pedro Martinez. He finished with 219 career wins. While he lacked the size of Clemens and Johnson, he threw almost as hard and possessed movement on par with Maddux. This took a great deal out of him and probably contributed to his Hall of Fame career beginning to fade out in 2006.
Which leaves us three modern hurlers still pitching today. Max Verlander was a first round selection out of Old Dominion in 2004 who debuted at age 22 the next season, then won 17 games for Detroit in 2006. Already established as the best pitcher in his league in 2011 he broke out with a season comparable to any of the all-time greats, whether they be Johnson, Mathewson or Alexander; Lefty Grove in 1931, Sandy Koufax in 1963, McLain and Gibson in 1968, Tom Seaver in 1969, Ron Guidry in 1978, Clemens in 1986, Orel Hershiser in 1988, Maddux in 1995, or Martinez in 1999. Had he pitched in a four-man rotation as pitchers did prior to the 1970s, Verlander may have won 30 games in 2011 instead of the 24 he did capture along with 250 strikeouts in 251 innings pitched. Despite having a relatively average frame, Verlander was blessed with a fast ball absolutely comparable to Koufax, Ryan and even recent freaks of nature such as Aroldis Chapman.
In 2019 with Houston Verlander won 20 again, by this time seemingly unheard of, but even more remarkably struck out 300 in 223 innings. As of this writing he has 260 career wins. If Verlander’s career were to be understood in the context of 1960s and 1970s hurlers, he could easily have attained the records held by Denny McLain and Tom Seaver. A surefire Hall of Famer who finally played on World Champions in 2017 and 2022, Verlander is for lack of a better word a “victim” of modern analytics that likely will result in his not winning 300 games. However many do not think they will see any more 300-game winners in their lifetimes. 200 is the new 300 now.
How good is Verlander? As good as anybody who ever laced up his spikes. Maybe better.
His teammate with Detroit, Max Scherzer, made up the other half of a one-two duo comparable to Koufax and Drysdale. Bigger and stronger, Scherzer might have been more durable than Verlander, but he is also slowing down considerably. He has played on two World Champions, won three Cy Youngs, including 2013 when he was 21-3. With Washington in 2018 Scherzer struck out 300 in leading the Nationals to the World Series title. Scherzer will be elected to Cooperstown but likely sits close behind Verlander in the pantheon.
If the Dodgers could win a legitimate World Series Kershaw might be the best hurler ever
Which brings us to the ultimate conundrum, Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kershaw may well be better than either of his contemporaries, Verlander and Scherzer. The seventh pick out of the 2006 draft from the legendary Highland Park High in Dallas, Kershaw has had three of the best seasons ever by a pitcher. This includes a 21-5 record with a 2.28 ERA, 248 strikeouts, and the Cy Young Award in 2011. Then in 2014 he was a remarkable 21-3 with a 1.77 ERA, his third Cy Young and league MVP. In 2016 Kershaw struck out 301 batters in 232.1 innings pitched. But his last really strong year was 2019, and even though he has pitched with some effectiveness in 2024, he appears near the end of the road with 212 wins and a 2.49 career ERA.
While Kershaw was a member of the 2020 Dodgers team that “won” the strange COVID World Series, despite some strong post-season games, and playing on what otherwise should have been a dynasty to rank with the Yankees of the 1920s, he has been an abysmal failure many, many times in the post-season and World Series, calling himself an “embarrassment.” There is no explanation for it. It is not a stretch to say Kershaw has been better than Verlander and Scherzer, but his post-season failures deprive him of this honor. He is a sure Hall of Fame and class act, but unless he pitches well on a World Series winner in a complete season, it is not a complete career.
Judging the likes of Verlander, Scherzer and Kershaw, aside from analytics in the “Moneyball” era, one must also consider that they pitched largely after the “steroid era.” None have been accused of using, and they largely - but not entirely - pitched against clean opposition. In this respect their numbers, while skewed anyway, need to be looked at differently than those of Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, Martinez and Mariano Rivera.
The evolution of athletics in general cannot be discounted. Jessie Owens did not put up the same times as Carl Lewis and Usain Bolt, but was just as great a track star. Mark Spitz did not swim as fast as Michael Phelps, but was just as dominant.
When Johnson, Mathewson, Alexander and Grove pitched, their numbers can more accurately be compared to a 25-game winner in the 1980s, maybe even a 22-game winner post-2000. ERAs have not necessarily changed that much. Gibson’s 1.12 in 1968 has not been approached, but the earned run averages of Dean Chance, Luis Tiant and Denny McLain in the 1960s, and Seaver in the 1970s, are roughly similar to those of Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, and Clayton Kershaw in more recent seasons.
The “launch angle” swing is producing strikeout ratios that if aligned with innings pitched in the 1970s would possibly break records once held by Rube Waddell, Bob Feller, Sandy Koufax and Nolan Ryan. The one record that looks totally safe is Ryan’s career mark of 5,714, along with Johnson’s 110 shutouts, Cy Young’s 511 wins, and Jack Chesbro’s 41 wins in 1904.
All of which brings us to . . .
Tom Seaver
Seaver is the greatest pitcher in New York Mets history. He is the singular hero of possibly the greatest and most incredible story ever in sports (the 1969 Mets). Between 1969 and 1970, it could be argued he was the most admired athlete ever. It is fairly safe to say he was baseball’s best pitcher of the 1970s, with all due respect to Steve Carlton (who Seaver regularly out-dueled) and Jim Palmer. In 1992 He received the highest percentage of Hall of Fame votes in history up until that time. At one point he trailed only Walter Johnson in career strikeouts. Any discussion of top 10 and even top five all-time pitchers regularly includes his name, but could he be number one, ahead of Walter Johnson, ahead of Koufax, ahead of Clemens and Randy Johnson?
Tom Seaver (1967-86) is the Greatest Pitcher of All Time
Seaver himself confided to writer Pat Jordan it was his goal to be considered the best ever, and at his Hall of Fame induction intimated that his numbers when looked at in context could rank him the best in history. For my money, he was, and here is my argument.
All of the records of the other contenders have been fleshed out, leaving us with Seaver and an analysis of why what he did might be better than what Koufax, Clemens or anybody did.
Unlike virtually all the others, Seaver was not a great high school pitcher. In fact he did not make California’s Fresno High varsity until his senior year, yet he was in the program during a period in which Fresno was the best prep team in the nation. Major League teammates of Seaver included Jim Maloney, Dick Ellsworth, Pat Corrales and Dick Selma. In his freshman year Fresno was 35-0, and in an analysis of all-time great high school baseball teams, both by Student Sports and MaxPreps.com, ranked them the number one team in U.S. history.
At five-foot, six inches tall and 140 pounds as a senior, Seaver specialized in curve balls and control, and was given zero look by colleges or professional teams. He entered the Marine Corps. After one full year of heavy Marine training, he had grown to six feet tall and 185 pounds of muscle. Pitching for the Camp Pendleton team he was convinced he had developed a powerful fast ball, and after release from active duty to the reserves entered Fresno City College, where the coach did not recognize him from Fresno High School. He was now bringing it around 90 miles per hour. After a spectacular season he attracted the interest of Coach Rod Dedeaux and the number one team in the land, the USC Trojans.
After making Summer All-American pitching for the Alaska Goldpanners in the National Baseball Congress in Wichita, Kansas, Seaver entered USC and was their ace in 1965 with a 10-2 record and 2.52 earned run average. Drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers, he turned them down, dashing the chance of a Seaver-Don Sutton-Andy Messersmith staff on the mid-1970s Dodgers.
After starring for the Goldpanners again in 1965 he returned to USC where, after a strong fall, he was considered one of the top prospects in the nation. The Milwaukee Braves drafted him and signed him out of the 1966 Winter Draft, but the signing was declared illegal since USC’s season had started (dashing again another possibility; Seaver and Phil Niekro teaming with Hank Aaron and all that run support on the 1969 Braves).
The Commissioner declared a special draft and in it Seaver was picked by the New York Mets, dead last losers of the National League. Seaver had a strong year at Triple-A Jacksonville and in 1967 pitched in the All-Star Game, won 16 games (he easily could have won 20 with hitting support), and Rookie for the Year honors for the last place Mets. In 1968 it could be argued the support for Seaver was the worst in baseball history, but he still won 16 and made the All-Star team.
In 1969 he had his greatest year in leading the “Miracle Mets” to victory over Baltimore in the World Series. His regular season record is not the best in history. Gibson and McLain in 1968; Ron Guidry in 1978 and Orel Hershiser in 1988; Koufax in 1963 and 1965; Pedro in 1999; plus any number of years by Walter Johnson, Mathewson, Alexander, Grove and Randy Johnson; all would rate higher, but the story of the ’69 Mets overshadows all of that. In the folklore of sports iconography only the 1980 “Miracle on Ice” compares.
Seaver was 25-7 with a 2.21 ERA, beating the Braves in the play-offs and the Orioles in the World Series. He won the Cy Young Award and would have won the MVP if not for two sportswriters who took it upon themselves to decide pitchers should not be eligible for the award, not putting Seaver anywhere among their ranked top 10 votes in an election he barely lost to Willie McCovey.
Seaver had continued to grow and throw harder each year since getting out of the Marines six years earlier, and threw in the high 90s. Nobody else threw that hard in baseball, except for Ryan, pitching mostly out of the bull pen for New York, who probably was approaching or exceeding that speed.
In 1970 Seaver was clearly better for three-quarters of a season. He opened 6-0, struck out 15 vs. in a shutout of Philadelphia but said he had not been at his best, then struck out 19, tying Carlton’s single-game record vs. San Diego. He started the All-Star Game and in August was 17-6, clearly within shot of 30 wins, a goal he had said was his. Only two years after McLain had done it, 30 wins was not out of reach. Then disaster occurred, for the first and probably only time in his career. Seaver folded down the stretch to finish 18-12, but still led the National League with a 2.82 ERA and 283 strikeouts, at the time a league record for right-handers.
In 1971 Seaver was 20-10 with a 1.76 ERA and 289 strikeouts, breaking his own league record. Of his 35 starts, he pitched well enough to win 33 of them, but his team supported him as woefully as in 1968. Had he pitched for a better club he would have won 30. Unbelievably, Ferguson Jenkins with an ERA one run higher than Seaver’s (2.77) was awarded the Cy Young.
After that season, Pat Jordan of Sports Illustrated did a huge spread on Seaver, writing that no pitcher in baseball history - not Johnson or Mathewson or even Cy Young - had as many wins at his age. Seaver again expressed a desire to be considered the best ever, and Jordan clearly felt he was on such a trajectory.
After winning 21 in 1972, in 1973 Seaver won 19 games again pitching for a team that seemingly forgot how to score runs for him. As in 1971, had he had the Reds or Dodgers backing him up he might have won 30. Pitching on short rest in the last game of the season at Chicago, he gave up enough runs to allow his league-leading ERA to rise above 2.00 for the first time all year, but won, then beat Cincinnati in the play-off finale before his team lost to Oakland in the World Series. He earned his second Cy Young. His first game performance vs. Cincinnati in the N.L.C.S. may have been the most dominant ever for 8.1 innings, and overall Seaver in 1973 was actually better and threw harder than in 1969-70. He earned his second Cy Young. Reggie Jackson said it best: “Tom Seaver is so good blind people come to the park to hear him pitch.”
Then in 1975 he won 22 with a 2.38 ERA, leading the league in strikeouts for the fourth time (243). That earned him his third Cy Young Award. He led the National League in strikeouts again in 1976, but it again might be hard to find a pitcher in all of baseball history who was given less support than the Mets provided Seaver that season.
Traded to the Reds in 1977 he was 21-6 with seven shutouts and a 2.34 earned run average. He pitched Cincinnati to the play-offs in 1979 and in a strike-shortened 1981 campaign was 14-2 (.875) with a 2.54 ERA. Had the players not struck he would have won 21-24 games. In a complete miscarriage of justice, Seaver was denied another Cy Young Award when it was handed to Fernando Valenzuela (13-7).
In 1985 he won his 300th career game, and won 14 and 15 games for the Chicago White Sox in 1984 and 1985, respectively. Entering the 1986 campaign with Boston, Seaver was 306-198 lifetime. With nothing to gain he pitched and finished 5-7, denying himself the honor of being the first pitcher to win 300 and lose less than 200, not to mention finishing with a winning percentage of .600. His lifetime ERA in 4,783 innings pitched was 2.86 with 61 shutouts and 3,640 strikeouts.
Obviously, the man had an impressive career and deserves all the superlatives that can be thrown his way, but few experts would agree he was the Greatest Pitcher of All Time. Then again, there are others who think he was.
Let us break down his career. Take his 61 career shutouts, tying him with Ryan for seventh on the all-time list. The rest are from the “dead ball” period, totally skewing the rankings. Technically he ranks 129th all-time in earned run average, but this is an utter joke. A list of pitchers “ahead” of him contains many names little known even by historians (Lady Baldwin, 2.85). Most of the names are pitchers from the “dead ball” era, which includes many from the 19th Century. Bob Gibson’s 1968 record of 1.12 is believed to be the modern record, but even he has eight pitchers from antiquity ranked ahead of him. Most of the modern - post-World War II - pitchers ranked ahead of Seaver are either relievers or pitchers with much shorter careers. For instance, he is tied with Andy Messersmith, a wonderful hurler who first squared off with Seaver when he was at Cal and Seaver at USC, but his career which started in 1968 was effectively over after 1975, and he pitched only 2,230 innings compared to Seavers’s 4,783. That is not a comparison.
The highest ranked modern starter is Jacob DeGrom at 2.52, but if the injuries that hamper him end his career tomorrow he is not a Hall of Famer. The next-best modern starter is Whitey Ford at 2.74, but Casey Stengel held him out of road games to pitch him at Yankee Stadium with a deep left field fence, vastly improving his statistics, although he only won 20 twice and finished with less than 200 victories. At number 99 is Koufax at 2.76, and his greatness has been detailed, but his career cannot be compared to Seaver’s from the standpoint of longevity. Only Jim Palmer is comparable in terms of longevity and overall statistics, and at number 126 is the only other pitcher ahead of Seaver at 2.85.
Up until the late 1970s, Seaver trailed only Walter Johnson (3,509) in career strikeouts. Eventually Nolan Ryan (5,714) and Steve Carlton (4,672) surpassed Seaver, who is sixth at 3,640. Ahead of him are also Randy Johnson (4,875), Roger Clemens (4,672), and Bert Blyleven (3,701). Right behind Seaver is Don Sutton, a 300-game winner with 3,573 strikeouts.
There are any number of pitchers with more career wins, but Seaver is a member of the magic 300 club which is virtually unattainable today.
Seaver finished with three Cy Young Awards, but should have won five or six (was Randy Jones really better than Tom Seaver in 1977?). He never won an MVP trophy but had won stolen from him by unscrupulous writers in 1969. He made the All-Star Game almost every year of his career until the very end. He won only won World Series but the Mets gave him miserable support, greatly effecting his career victory totals (which could easily have been 320-330) not to mention several seasons (1971, 1973) when won 20 and 19 but could have won 28-30.
Finally there is what I consider his trump card. When baseball expanded in 1961-62 and Roger Maris broke Babe Ruth’’s single-season home run record with 61, MLB raised the pitcher’s mound six inches in 1962. All of Sandy Koufax’s most dominant seasons were pitching off a high mound, as were the best years of Don Drysdale (1962, 1965), Dean Chance (1964), Juan Marichal (1966, 1968) and Bob Gibson (1968). The mound was lowered in 1969, Seaver’s best year. His 25-7 record and 2.21 ERA must be viewed in this light against Gibson’s 1.12 in 1968 or Koufax’s 1.88 in 1963. Furthermore, Dodger Stadium had far deeper fences then than now. It is also my considered opinion that L.A. smog at night made it that much more difficult to hit Koufax.
Seaver had a 1.76 ERA in 286 innings pitched in 1971, and was below 2.00 before beating the Cubs, 6-4, to clinch the 1973 East Division. He threw a no-hitter in 1978. He held the single-game strikeout record of 19 with Steve Carlton until it was broken by Clemens and Johnson.
Considering the importance of longevity, Koufax cannot be considered better than Seaver. Many have said Gibson was the greater pitcher. The statistics disagree, and the comparison of the low vs. high mound is not in Gibby’s favor. While Koufax’s dominant stretch between 1962 and 1966 may be the best ever, a comparison of Seaver between 1969 and 1977, a longer period, has few equals. The fact his team failed to score for him must be factored in, although Koufax played for a light-hitting team as well. But Seaver has an even longer stretch of dominance (1967-81) that is matched by very few.
So times and eras must be factored in determining pitching greatness. Statistically, there is absolutely no comparison between the records of any number of pitchers throwing the “dead ball” until 1920, but it would be totally unfair to just state based on numbers that Christy Mathewson, who Seaver was most favorably compared to, was better. Lefty Grove and Bob Feller pitched entirely or in large measure against segregated competition. Warren Spahn received far greater run support, as did Steve Carlton, Jim Palmer, Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson. Hank Aaron called him the toughest pitcher he ever face. Johnny Bench agreed and said he was the best he ever caught. Seaver threw to three all-time greats: Jerry Grote with the Mets, Bench with the Reds, and Carlton Fisk with the White Sox.
Maddux did not throw as hard as Seaver and received far greater team support. Bob Feller may well be thought of as the best of all time but his war service reduced his career victories to well below 300, just as it cost Ted Williams his shot at 714 home runs and 3,000 hits.
Carlton certainly compares with Seaver, but Seaver was better. The Cardinals and Phillies (even in 1972, when they finished last but strangely scored for Carlton) gave him far more run support. Seaver held up better in head-to-head competition. But Carlton’s shining records are marred by two sub-par seasons. In 1970 he was 10-19 and in 1973 actually lost 20 games. Seaver never came close to such failure. His only down years were a couple of injury-plagued seasons toward the end. Carlton’s were in his prime with no discernible injuries.
By the same consideration, Max Verlander and Clayton Kershaw must be considered legitimate contenders for the title of Greatest Pitcher of All Time. Kershaw loses valuable points because he has failed so much in post-season play.
Clemens should be thought the best pitcher who ever lived, but is like Barry Bonds offensively denied this title for the same reason. He and Bonds put up astounding numbers than cannot be denied, yet neither is in the Hall of Fame and may never be. Steroids, or cheating as many just call it, cannot be discounted. As great as Clemens, Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and others were, it is plainly obvious their numbers are vastly inflated because of the choices they made.
All things considered, I have laid out a fairly comprehensive analysis of statistics and eras. There is really no way to truly compare Walter Johnson to Clemens; Lefty Grove to Steve Carlton; or Christy Mathewson to Tom Seaver, but I can use knowledge and common sense to lay out why, in my humble opinion, the Greatest Pitcher of All Time is George Thomas Seaver.
Steven Travers is a former screenwriter who has authored over 30 books including The Last Icon: Tom Seaver and His Times. He is a USC graduate and attorney with a Ph.D who taught at USC and attended the UCLA Writers’ Program. He played professional baseball, served in the Army JAG corps in D.C., was in investment banking on Wall Street, worked in politics, lived in Europe, and was a sports agent before finding his calling as a writer. He has written for the San Francisco Examiner, L.A. Times, StreetZebra, Gentry magazine, Newsmax, Substack and MichaelSavage.com. He lives in California and has one daughter, Elizabeth. He can be reached at USCSTEVE1@aol.com or on Twitter @STWRITES.
